ACUS02 KWNS 190600
SWODY2
SPC AC 190558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail,
will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the central and northern
High Plains westward into the northern Rockies.

...Central and Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies...
A shortwave trough in the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify
on Tuesday. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the trough at
the start of the period in the central Dakotas. Further west, an
upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central
and northern High Plains. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south
corridor of maximized low-level moisture will destabilize during the
day, with pockets of moderate instability likely developing by
afternoon. Although large-scale ascent should be weak due to the
upper ridge, topographical forcing and low-level convergence is
expected to result in isolated convective initiation. A few storms
should develop in the afternoon, from central and eastern Montana
southward into western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Forecast
soundings in the central and northern High Plains during the mid to
late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, mostly
owing to speed shear in the mid-levels. In addition, low-level lapse
rates are forecast to be steep, with relatively large surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads. This environment will likely be
favorable for high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind
gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 08/19/2024

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