ACUS02 KWNS 180601
SWODY2
SPC AC 180600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...AND FROM
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible on Monday over the eastern half of North Carolina into the
Mid-Atlantic, and from far east Texas into Louisiana. Isolated
severe wind gusts and hail may occur from parts of the central and
northern High Plains into the northern Rockies.

...North Carolina/Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Monday,
as an associated cold front advances eastward into the coastal areas
of the middle Atlantic Seaboard. Along and ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower 70s F. This will
result in weak instability by early afternoon near the coast from
North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface heating and increasing
low-level convergence along the front will enable thunderstorms to
form during the afternoon. Additional storms are forecast to develop
in the post-frontal airmass. In most areas, forecast soundings
suggest that 0-6 km shear will be around 30 knots with 0-3 km lapse
rates peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This could be enough for
isolated severe wind gusts associated with the stronger multicells
during the mid to late aftennnoon.

...Far East Texas/Louisiana...
North-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Monday over
much of the central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will be
located across the Red River and Sabine River Valleys. Surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower 70s F from east Texas into
western and central Louisiana. This will contribute to a narrow
corridor of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms may form along and to the east of this axis of
instability with storms moving south-southeastward toward the Gulf
Coast during the mid to late afternoon. A consensus of model
forecasts at this time in the Sabine River Valley Monday currently
have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
shear near 30 knots. This would support an isolated severe threat,
with a potential for marginally severe wind gusts.

...Central and Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central
and northern High Plains on Monday. To the west of the ridge, an
axis of moderate instability will be in place by afternoon from
eastern Colorado northward into the western Dakotas and eastern
Montana. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convection
will likely form in the higher terrain. Additional more isolated
storms may develop in the lower elevations. Forecast soundings along
and near the instability axis by mid to late afternoon have MLCAPE
peaking in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates
becoming very steep. This, combined with relatively large surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads should be favorable for high-based
storms associated with isolated severe wind gusts. Hail will also be
possible with the stronger cores.

..Broyles.. 08/18/2024

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