179
WTNT35 KNHC 161155
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
800 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...ERNESTO APPROACHING BERMUDA, WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING STARTING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 66.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 66.5 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h).  This
general motion is expected to continue today followed by a slower
north-northeastward motion on Saturday.  A faster northeastward
motion is expected late in the weekend.  On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on
Saturday and maintain hurricane strength through the weekend.

Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning later this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15
inches.  This rainfall will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.  Swells are
expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later
today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of
Atlantic Canada by late Saturday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water
if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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