ACUS01 KWNS 161251
SWODY1
SPC AC 161250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF KANSAS
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for much of Kansas into
northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas.  Large to very large
hail and severe gusts are the expected hazards with the stronger
thunderstorms.

...Central/Southern Plains Region...
A surface front will become draped from the Ozarks westward into KS
and arcing into the north-central High Plains by mid afternoon.
With this region largely in between a mid-level anticyclone over NM
and an upper low over the Upper Midwest, a subtle impulse in
water-vapor imagery over the central High Plains is forecast to
gradually move east across KS today.  Models show an instability
axis paralleling the frontal zone where the combination of
deep-layer shear/buoyancy will be greatest.  It is within the Slight
Risk where the potential for organized storms, including supercells
and eventually severe clusters/line segments appear to be most
probable.  However, given the relatively modest forcing, it is not
entirely clear how storm clusters evolve except for the peak storm
intensity/coverage to generally focus late this afternoon into the
evening.  This activity will likely continue to move east-southeast
into richer moisture in the northeast OK vicinity and yield a risk
for severe gusts potentially into tonight.

Farther southwest into western OK and adjacent parts of TX, a hot
and deeply mixed boundary layer will feature very steep 0-3 km lapse
rates by late afternoon.  Isolated to scattered storms are indicated
in model guidance.  Severe gusts associated with evaporatively
cooled downdrafts appear to be the primary hazard before this
activity weakens by mid evening.

...KY/TN Valley/Mid South...
Scattered showers/thunderstorm ongoing this morning across parts of
TN/KY will continue east through the morning.  Heating ahead of this
activity will act to destabilize a moist airmass with additional
development forecast on trailing outflow.  Isolated to widely
scattered damaging gusts are possible with the more intense storms
once the boundary layer sufficiently destabilizes.  Some recent
model guidance indicates a focused mesoscale corridor for wind
potential may evolve across the TN Valley but uncertainty is
relatively high for this scenario.

...Southern Great Lakes vicinity...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a leading mid-level vorticity
maximum moving east across northern IN/southern Lower MI.  Weak
instability immediately downstream of this impulse (250 J/kg MUCAPE
per the Detroit 12 UTC raob) and an associated cloud shield will
likely limited storm intensity until stronger heating can occur.
Upstream of the aforementioned disturbance, another mid-level
shortwave is forecast to rotate east-southeastward from MN towards
Lake Michigan through the early evening.  Heating ahead of this
impulse will yield at least weak to moderate buoyancy by early
afternoon.  Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop immediately ahead of the upper low.  Hail/wind are possible
with storms that evolve along this corridor of stronger instability.

..Smith/Mosier.. 08/16/2024

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