206
WTNT35 KNHC 151149
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
800 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 69.3W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 69.3 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h).  This general motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or
northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.  Ernesto is
forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.79 inches)
based on data from a dropsonde.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12
inches.  This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach
the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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