ACUS02 KWNS 150602
SWODY2
SPC AC 150600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE OZARKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday
over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys,
and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central/southern
Plains. Damaging winds and occasional large hail should be the main
threats.

...Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South...
A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of
the Great Lakes, Midwest, and OH Valley on Friday. A belt of
enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central
Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Related
deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization
with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak
surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Upper
Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend
south-southwestward from this surface low.

Extensive convection will probably be ongoing Friday morning across
the OH Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms may
occur through the day, though the primary severe threat is expected
with separate thunderstorms that will develop in the wake of
early-day convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal
heating of a rather moist low-level airmass across a broad area will
support pockets of moderate to locally strong instability by late
afternoon across parts of the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys. Moderate
mid-level flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft
organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment
should eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the
front.

However, details of thunderstorm initiation and evolution remain
rather unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and
generally weak low-level convergence near the surface front.
However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the
afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging winds and severe
hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if
confidence increases in the location of one or more favored
corridors of severe potential within the broader Marginal Risk area.


...Ozarks into the Central/Southern Plains...
The trailing portion of the cold front should extend from southern
MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. Isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development may occur in the
vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist
into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Other isolated
activity may develop across the central High Plains in eastern CO
into western KS. Moderate to strong buoyancy and supportive
deep-layer shear across these areas should foster a threat of
isolated strong/damaging gusts and large hail with the more robust
storms from late Friday afternoon through the evening.

...Northern High Plains...
High-based convection may develop over the northern Rockies in
advance of a mid-level shortwave trough, and subsequently move
across the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture and instability
are forecast to remain limited, but steepened low-level lapse rates
could allow for isolated strong/gusty winds as this activity moves
east-northeastward through the early evening. At this point, the
overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low
severe wind probabilities.

..Gleason.. 08/15/2024

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