ACUS02 KWNS 140602
SWODY2
SPC AC 140600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the
Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Damaging winds and
large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may
also occur.

...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A mid/upper-level trough should gradually amplify and deepen over
the Upper Midwest on Thursday, eventually transitioning to a closed
upper low. A gradual intensification of mid-level westerly flow is
forecast across parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS
Valley vicinity through the day. At the surface, a weak low may
gradually occlude beneath the upper cyclone through the period, with
a trailing front extending southwestward from this low across parts
of the Midwest into the central and southern Plains.

In the wake of mainly elevated thunderstorms that should be ongoing
Thursday morning, low-level southwesterly flow should support
airmass recovery and robust destabilization Thursday afternoon from
parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest.
Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates overlying rich low-level
moisture (upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints) will likely foster
strong to locally extreme instability, with MLCAPE potentially in
the 2500-4000+ J/kg range across the warm sector by late Thursday
afternoon. Meanwhile, gradually strengthening mid-level flow will
support effective bulk shear values around 30-45 kt, resulting in a
conditionally rather favorable environment for severe thunderstorms.

The details of convective initiation and evolution still remain
rather uncertain due to weak low-level convergence along the
synoptic front. Regardless, isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms should develop by late Thursday afternoon along this
boundary, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from
earlier convection. Supercells with a threat of large hail,
localized damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes will be possible
initially, with some upscale growth potentially leading to an
increase in severe/damaging wind potential by Thursday evening, as
thunderstorms move into parts of southern MO/IL and vicinity.

...Southern/Central Plains...
With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is
expected to occur along/south of the front across parts of southern
KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of
this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to
mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind
threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional
hail may also occur with the strongest cores.

..Gleason.. 08/14/2024

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