364
WTNT35 KNHC 121456
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
...DISTURBANCE STILL MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 55.6W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, has been upgraded to a Tropical
Storm Warning.

The government of Antigua has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to
a Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 15.1 North, longitude 55.6 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 26 mph (43 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward
Islands late tonight or Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening. Then, the
disturbance is forecast to move away from Puerto Rico over the
western Atlantic through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical
depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it
nears the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the
Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of
rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday
morning:
Windward Islands...1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola...2 to 4 inches

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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