ACUS01 KWNS 121224
SWODY1
SPC AC 121223

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the
coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin
northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern
Montana.

...Rockies/Central High Plains Region...
Water-vapor imagery this morning depicts a flattened upper
anticyclone centered over east TX/LA and a large-scale trough over
the WA/OR/northern CA coast.  A notable mid-level disturbance will
move from the eastern Pacific east-northeastward into northern NV
during the period.  Mid-level flow ahead of the western U.S.
troughing will not be strong, but a plume of seasonably moist air
from the Four Corners northward into MT will favor scattered to
numerous thunderstorms developing this afternoon into the early
evening.  Heating will steepen 0-3 km lapse rates and promote severe
gusts with the stronger outflow surges from UT northward along the
ID/WY border.  Recent model guidance also indicates widely scattered
to scattered storms developing across northern MT and moving east as
a small thunderstorm cluster.  Localized severe gusts may accompany
this activity before weakening by early to mid evening.  Farther
east over the central High Plains, the maintenance of moist/upslope
flow into the High Plains and higher terrain (i.e., CO Front Range)
will promote isolated to scattered storms developing around peak
heating and moving into the adjacent High Plains.  An isolated risk
for large hail/severe gusts will be the primary hazards with the
stronger storms.  A cluster of storms will likely develop in
response to a nocturnal intensification of a LLJ but waning
instability by late evening will limit overall storm vigor.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Southern influence of eastern US trough will glance this region
today as a belt of 20-30kt mid-level flow overspreads a very
moisture-rich airmass (i.e., mid to upper 70s deg F surface
dewpoints) south of a front.  Scattered thunderstorms should develop
along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off
the coast by early evening.  Marginally severe gusts could be noted
with the strongest storms.

..Smith/Jewell.. 08/12/2024

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