ACUS02 KWNS 110556
SWODY2
SPC AC 110554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears
generally low across the contiguous United States.

...Eastern Great Basin into the Southern/Central High Plains...
Upper ridging should persist over much of the Great Basin into the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday. A mid-level shortwave
trough is forecast to move across northern CA and the northern Great
Basin through the period. But, due to its late timing, this feature
will provide only glancing ascent farther east. Regardless,
scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to
develop by Monday afternoon over the higher terrain of the
southern/central Rockies, and along a weak surface lee trough. This
activity should eventually spread eastward into the southern/central
High Plains late Monday afternoon through early evening. Low-level
moisture and mid-level flow are both expected to remain rather
modest/limited across these areas, which should generally inhibit
thunderstorm organization. Still, some chance for isolated strong to
severe wind gusts may exist with any high-based convection that can
develop. But, this threat appears too isolated/unfocused for low
severe wind probabilities.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks...
Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Monday
morning across parts of OK into the Ozarks vicinity. This activity
is forecast to diminish in coverage through the day as warm
advection attendant to a southwesterly low-level jet weakens. In the
wake of this early day convection, moderate to locally strong
instability should develop along/near a front across parts of
northern OK/southern KS. Large-scale ascent will remain minimal
across this area, but a conditional threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms remains apparent. Regardless, not enough confidence
exists in robust thunderstorms developing to introduce severe
probabilities at this time.

...Coastal Carolinas...
A notable upper trough will move eastward over the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The southern fringe of this feature should
have a glancing influence on convective potential across parts of
the coastal Carolinas Monday afternoon. Although large-scale ascent
will remain weak with southward extent, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may still develop along/south of a front in a
moderately unstable environment. But, deep-layer shear appears too
weak to support more than transient updraft organization. While
sporadic strong wind gusts may occur, the overall severe threat
appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe probabilities.

..Gleason.. 08/11/2024

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