ACUS01 KWNS 110525
SWODY1
SPC AC 110524

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
central High Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota.

...Central High Plains to Black Hills...

Notable short-wave trough is currently located over western MT/ID.
This feature is forecast to advance into eastern WY by 18z as a
500mb speed max, in excess of 40kt, translates toward the NE
Panhandle. This short wave will begin to dig southeast during the
latter half of the period, subsequently shifting into the mid MO
Valley by 12/12z. At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold
across the mid MS Valley such that southeasterly low-level
trajectories will be maintained across the central High Plains
through the day1 period.

Given the influence of the continental airmass across the central
Plains, the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted along the
western periphery of the anticyclone from eastern WY into eastern
CO. This will be the corridor of maximum destabilization, coincident
with the large-scale ascent expected ahead of the short wave.
Scattered convection will likely be ongoing early in the period
across southern MT. This activity will propagate southeast toward
western SD where renewed convection could develop by 21-22z, as
convective temperatures are breached along the southwestern flank.
At this time will maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with convection
that evolves ahead of the short wave. However, there is some concern
this activity may become a bit more organized, and this could
necessitate higher severe probabilities during the late
afternoon/evening hours.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/11/2024

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