ACUS01 KWNS 101245
SWODY1
SPC AC 101244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
HIGH PLAINS WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and
perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening
over parts of the High Plains and extending into the eastern Great
Basin.

...High Plains into the eastern Great Basin...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a flattened mid-level ridge
centered over the south-central U.S., with a belt of enhanced flow
extending from northern CA east across the central Rockies and into
the Lower Great Lakes.  A 500-mb speed max will move across ID
eastward into WY/northern CO during the period.  In the low levels,
a lee trough will act as a focus for thunderstorm development this
afternoon across the High Plains.

Showers/thunderstorms over the northern part of the southern High
Plains will gradually push east into OK during the day.  Relatively
cool and a stable airmass sampled this morning over the central
Great Plains [reference the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob (nearly nil
buoyancy)] may serve as a relative minima in storm
coverage/intensity later today.  Yet, strong heating and the
development of steep lapse rates are forecast to contribute to weak
buoyancy later this afternoon (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) over the High
Plains westward into parts of the eastern Great Basin.  Inverted-V
profiles over UT eastward into northern CO/southern WY will favor
localized severe gusts with the widely scattered to scattered
thunderstorms.  Forecast soundings over the High Plains westward
into the north-central Rockies indicate some storm organization may
occur with the stronger updrafts (i.e., supercell structure).
Marginally severe hail/gusts are the primary concerns with this
activity.  Tonight, the LLJ is forecast to intensify over the TX
Panhandle into western OK.  Scattered elevated storms will probably
focus on the northern edge of greater instability within a
favorable zone of low-level warm advection.  Uncertainty in storm
intensity precludes an eastward expansion of low-severe
probabilities into OK at this time.

..Smith/Jewell.. 08/10/2024

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