ACUS01 KWNS 091642
SWODY1
SPC AC 091640

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN NEW YORK...AND NEW JERSEY...AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from parts of the
Mid-Atlantic states northward across portions of New England. A few
strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along
with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming.

...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England...
As the center of P.T.C. Debby -- now over south-central New York --
continues moving north-northeastward across New York today, and then
into Quebec/across the St. Lawrence Valley this evening and tonight,
very strong low-level shear will continue to spread northward across
eastern New York and much of New England.  While northward
destabilization will be hindered by a lack of appreciable daytime
heating due to widespread cloud cover, a very moist boundary layer
(dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) spreading northward toward
the Canadian border will support at least neutrally buoyant profiles
across most of New England this evening and tonight.  As such, low
(2%) tornado probability is being expanded northward/northeastward
in this update, to include the remainder of northern Vermont and
northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine, to cover the potential
for a brief tornadic spin-up after dark.

Otherwise, greatest potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist
this afternoon and into this evening from eastern
Pennsylvania/eastern New York into parts of New Jersey, and across
the Hudson and Champlain Valleys into western Vermont, western
Massachusetts, and western Connecticut.

...Southern High Plains...
Afternoon storm development is expected across the Raton Mesa
vicinity of northeastern New Mexico, aided by afternoon
heating/destabilization, and the eastward advance of a mid-level
vort max across southern Colorado.  Moderate (around 30 kt)
mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of
storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a
couple of strong gusts as convection crosses the Oklahoma and
northern Texas Panhandle area.

...Southern Wyoming...
Daytime heating/modest destabilization across the Intermountain West
will support development of isolated to scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorms.  With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt)
northwesterly flow across the Wyoming vicinity, some storm
organization will be possible.  Some CAMs suggest eventual upscale
growth into a loosely organized cluster by this evening, moving
east-southeastward toward southeastern portions of the state.
Resulting potential for a few stronger wind gusts with this activity
warrants inclusion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk area.

..Goss/Weinman.. 08/09/2024

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