AWUS01 KWNH 091539
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-092135-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0849
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1138 AM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

Areas affected...eastern SC/NC border into eastern NC and far
southeastern VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 091535Z - 092135Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain from SSW to NNE is expected to
generate renewed flash flood concerns through mid-afternoon for
eastern NC, potentially extending northward into southeastern VA.
While the coverage of higher intensity rain may be limited,
rainfall rates between 1-3 in/hr are likely.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery over the past 1-2 hours has shown
semi-organized lines of showers and thunderstorms located over
eastern NC and just offshore, associated with confluent flow in
the 925-850 mb layer. Winds in this layer have weakened compared
to last night but remained southerly in the 20-30 kt range over
the Outer Banks and Pamlico Sound, weakening and veering with
western extent. Precipitable water values ranged between 2.2-2.4
inches and MLCAPE was limited to the Coastal Plain, as high as
1500 J/kg along the coast, but lower to the west.

Although Post-T.C. Debby is forecast to quickly track northward
today from western PA, the flow regime across eastern NC will
remain similar well into the afternoon per recent RAP forecasts.
This will favor the occasional generation of a narrow axis or two
of heavy rain with training, given a similar orientation of the
low level confluence to the deeper layer steering flow. Cloud
cover will likely maintain limited CAPE values for inland portions
of eastern NC, which should focus shower/thunderstorm activity
over the eastern 1/4 of NC, perhaps extending northward into
southeastern VA.

Given recent rainfall over the past 2-3 days over the region, as
high as 10+ inches over the southern coast of NC, soils are fairly
saturated and have limited infiltration capacity. Training bands
with 1-3 in/hr rainfall rates are expected through the afternoon
which would likely result in renewed areas of flash flooding.
Precise location of these bands is uncertain, but a good portion
of eastern NC into southeastern VA will remain in a favorable
setup for these narrow bands of training well into the afternoon.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37717595 37547532 36597547 35027540 33817703 
            33647847 34147916 35347834 
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