ACUS01 KWNS 091237
SWODY1
SPC AC 091236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado threat is expected today from the Mid-Atlantic states
northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also
be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the
southern Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast...
The remnants of Debby will continue to move north-northeast and
accelerate reaching the St. Lawrence Valley late this evening as a
mid-level speed max over the Midwest quickly moves through the
southern and Lower Great Lakes regions.  A warm front will advance
northward into central NY and New England later today as a southerly
850-mb speed max shifts northward.  South of the boundary, a very
moisture-rich airmass (mid 70s deg F surface dewpoints) and some
modest heating will contribute to weak to moderate destabilization.
The 12 UTC IAD raob showed 250 J/kg MLCAPE and 36 kt of 0-0.5 km
shear.  Enlarged hodographs especially in the vicinity of the
surface frontal zone will aid in storm-scale rotation with any
robust updraft.  The risk for a few tornadoes will likely focus
initially over the Mid-Atlantic states and PA this morning before
shifting northward towards early afternoon.  A wind-damage threat
may also develop today with the stronger linear structures and
supercells.  This activity is expected to eventually affect parts of
western New England by mid to late afternoon and into the early
evening before diminishing.

...East-central Texas...
A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas
Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of
central and east Texas.  Model forecasts indicate widely scattered
to scattered storms will favor this region later this afternoon into
the early evening.  The expected moderate instability combined with
steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally
severe wind gusts.

...Southern High Plains...
A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over
the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized
low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and
eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate
instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that
initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected
to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability
corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within
this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts.

..Smith/Jewell.. 08/09/2024

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