ACUS02 KWNS 070456
SWODY2
SPC AC 070455

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of
eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be
accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland
across the south Atlantic coast.

...Synopsis...
Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a
prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it
appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will
consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night.  At the same
time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be
maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern
Great Plains.  However, there may be some suppression of this
ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there
appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants
of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South
Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z
Friday.

In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or
drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this
period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the
Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys.

...Southern Mid Atlantic...
Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the
low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern
South Carolina Thursday morning.  And it appears that low-level wind
fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable
of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as
it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though
Thursday night.

Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of
coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based
buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points
increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core
(roughly near -4 C around 500 mb).  It appears that this will
overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia
coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize
potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most
vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling
eastern outer bands.

..Kerr.. 08/07/2024

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