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From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
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Mike Powell | All | DAY1 ENHANCED RISK MS Val |
January 5, 2025 10:02 AM * |
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ACUS01 KWNS 051250 SWODY1 SPC AC 051248 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
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