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Message   Nightrunner    NEIL J MARSHALL   Re: [VirtualNET open?]...   July 22, 1995
 12:05 AM *  

NJM>Windows/95 will ship more copies in the first few months than OS/2 has
NJM>in all its life.

NJM>The future of OS/2 is as good or bad as the future of the Mac, the
NJM>Amiga, and all the other "interesting but not mainstream" products.

Geeze, Neil...  the reality is that Microsoft has a huge market share not
because of any particularly interesting or innovative thought they've used
in developing their operating systems.  Rather, their market share comes
from being on the market first, with the most supported products.

I don't know that Win95 is going to be incredibly successful.  The Mac has
taken over, to a tremendous extent, the market of education: we'll see what
that does to the Microsoft empire over the next decade or so, as students
come out of college prepared to work with a Mac....

Just because you and I prefer DOS or Windows over a Mac doesn't mean that
Macs aren't going to be tremendously successful.  They've carved out a
fairly big chunk of the market by targetting people who will move into the
primary (business) market...  Apple became a corporation worth looking at
on that strategy... and I suspect it's going to happen again, in the long
run.  But that's market speculation, not fact...

However, ignoring your Mac comment...  you're right, with a little hedging.
OS/2 doesn't appear, currently, to have much of a future, because native
products are hard to come by.

However, given the merger between Lotus and IBM, it's conceivable that an
integrated office/operating system package that's compatible with both 16
and 32 bit DOS/Windows operating systems could become a major player in the
market...  Let's not write off OS/2 so quickly...  the software market it
too volatile (no pun intended ;) to make such predictions meaningfully.

        -Bill
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